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A thing I made

A forecast you could plan around.

One of the first public forecasts of when COVID-19 would peak — and whether hospitals would have the room to meet it.

Role
Data viz · design eng
Year
2020
Org
IHME · UW

In 2020 I was at IHME, turning a daily forecasting model into something anyone could read in seconds: projected deaths and hospital demand for every U.S. state, then every country, each shown as a range rather than one confident number. The first public version shipped in weeks. We rebuilt it every day after that.

A region's daily-deaths forecast: the observed climb so far, a projected curve continuing past today, and a shaded uncertainty band that widens into the future toward a marked projected peak.
One region: what we’d seen, what we projected, and the uncertainty widening ahead.

Most dashboards counted what had already happened. This was one of the first to put a date on the peak: when each place would crest, and whether its hospitals would have room. It ran daily in national and global news.

Several regional curves on one timeline, each peaking on a different date, with the peaks connected to show the wave arriving later from place to place.
Peaks weeks apart by region
A projected demand curve cresting above a dashed capacity line, with the gap between them — the shortfall — shaded in.
Projected demand vs. capacity

Same idea as my transit work: the forecast people can act on isn’t the most confident one, it’s the one that’s honest about how wrong it might be.

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Michael Fernandes
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500 PX